docs(runbook): drop the claim that a cold rebuild needs console access

The rewrite earlier today stated, at the top and again in known gaps, that the
rebuild cannot be driven remotely: management is a tagged VLAN, a maintenance
mode node cannot configure VLANs, so it comes up unreachable and every machine
needs a keyboard.

That is wrong. A maintenance-mode node DHCPs untagged and is reachable at that
address — it is not on management, but it answers, and that is precisely the
address `apply-config --insecure` targets in Step 2. All three bare-metal
conversions were driven that way.

The claim came from #576 and was carried into this document without being
checked against what had actually happened days earlier in this repo. It is the
worst place to put an unverified constraint: a disaster-recovery runbook is read
when there is no capacity to discover that a stated prerequisite is fiction, and
"you need physical access to three machines" is exactly the kind of statement
that changes whether someone attempts a recovery at all.

What survives is narrower and true: MS-01 has no IPMI and nothing here does
PXE, so booting from USB is physical. Everything after the boot is remote.

Also removes the follow-on error from the first correction, which claimed the
switch port change on 2026-08-27 had fixed a reachability problem. There was no
reachability problem to fix. That change is real and useful — a maintenance mode
node now lands in management rather than the fallback network — but it did not
turn an impossible rebuild into a possible one.

#576 still carries the original claim and is flagged in known gaps as wrong.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

kubernetes/RUNBOOK-cold-rebuild.md

@@ -1,10 +1,25 @@
 # Cold-rebuild runbook — homelab cluster from scratch
 
 Rebuild the entire cluster from **this repo + backups only**, assuming nothing
-in the cluster survives (all VMs gone, Ceph gone, in-cluster Gitea gone).
+in the cluster survives (all three nodes wiped, Ceph gone, in-cluster Gitea
+gone).
 
 Order: **tofu → talos → flux → openbao → apps.**
 
+All three nodes are bare-metal MS-01 machines. Nothing provisions them: there
+are no VMs to recreate, and OpenTofu owns only DNS, object storage and UniFi.
+Step 1 is therefore two unrelated halves — a `tofu apply` for the platform
+resources, and physically booting three machines from install media.
+
+**Someone has to be at the machines to boot them from USB** — MS-01 has no IPMI
+and nothing here does PXE. Everything after that is remote.
+
+A node in maintenance mode configures no VLANs and DHCPs untagged, so it comes
+up on whatever untagged network its ports carry — not on management, which is
+a tagged VLAN on the X710 trunk. It is reachable there: that is the address
+`apply-config --insecure` talks to in Step 2, and it is how all three
+bare-metal conversions were driven. Find the leases on the UDM.
+
 ## The circular-bootstrap problem this runbook exists to break
 
 In steady state Flux's `GitRepository flux-system` pulls manifests from the
@@ -61,12 +76,21 @@ These must exist outside the cluster or the rebuild cannot complete:
       `openbao-daily` offsite copy. In a total-loss rebuild the offsite Velero
       copy is the one that survives.
 - [ ] **Tooling:** `talosctl`, `kubectl`, `flux`, `tofu`, `bao`, plus the
-      OpenTofu backend + Proxmox/UniFi credentials the `opentofu/` stack needs.
+      OpenTofu backend + UniFi credentials the `opentofu/` stack needs. No
+      Proxmox credentials — there is no Proxmox any more.
+- [ ] **Install media** written and to hand: the Image Factory ISO named in
+      Step 1, on a USB stick, for all three machines.
+- [ ] **Someone at the machines to boot them from USB.** No IPMI, no PXE. A
+      monitor is useful for reading boot errors but is not required to find the
+      node afterwards — it DHCPs into management on its own (see the note at
+      the top). Everything past the boot is remote.
 
-## Step 1 — tofu: provision the VMs + supporting infra
+## Step 1a — tofu: DNS, object storage, UniFi
 
-Recreate the Talos VMs and the platform resources OpenTofu owns (Proxmox VMs,
-UniFi DNS records incl. `k8s.renner.uno` / node A records, etc.).
+OpenTofu no longer provisions any node. The `proxmox_vm` module still exists in
+the tree but nothing instantiates it, so `tofu apply` here creates only the
+platform resources: UniFi DNS records including `k8s.renner.uno` and the node A
+records, the Hetzner object storage, and the NAT hairpin rules.
 
 ```sh
 cd opentofu
@@ -74,44 +98,119 @@ tofu init -upgrade -backend-config="access_key=..." -backend-config="secret_key=
 tofu apply
 ```
 
-In CI this is `.woodpecker/deploy-infrastructure.yml` (manual, `TOFU_APPLY=true`),
-which also pre-seeds the Talos image onto every Proxmox node. Wait until the
-node FQDNs (`k8s-{1,2,3}.srv.renner.uno`) resolve and the VMs are up before
-Step 2 — `bootstrap.sh` polls DNS but will not create the records.
+Run this first regardless, because Step 2 needs `k8s.renner.uno` and the node
+FQDNs to resolve — the control-plane endpoint is baked into every generated
+config, and the nodes are addressed by name.
 
-**k8s-1 is not a VM and OpenTofu does not create it.** jupiter runs Talos on
-bare metal, so this step only provisions k8s-2 (saturn) and k8s-3 (neptune).
-Before Step 2, boot jupiter from the bare-metal image below so it comes up in
-maintenance mode and answers on `k8s-1.srv.renner.uno` — `bootstrap.sh` treats
-all three nodes identically from there, since `apply-config --insecure` does
-not care whether the target is a VM or bare metal.
+## Step 1b — boot all three machines from install media
 
 ```
-https://factory.talos.dev/image/0f6fb8bd8bb53013e9743b7c7b099d96fb9c32fd2464ced32693c2dc0ea5feb9/v1.12.11/metal-amd64.iso
+https://factory.talos.dev/image/0f6fb8bd8bb53013e9743b7c7b099d96fb9c32fd2464ced32693c2dc0ea5feb9/v1.13.9/metal-amd64.iso
 ```
 
-That schematic is deliberately not the one `.woodpecker/deploy-infrastructure.yml`
-seeds onto the Proxmox nodes. It keeps the same `net.ifnames=1` kernel argument
-— without it the predictable interface names that `talos/patches/k8s-1.yaml`
-matches its VLAN parents against do not exist — and differs in three ways:
+Write it to a USB stick and boot each MS-01 from it. Each comes up in
+maintenance mode with a DHCP address on an untagged network — not on
+management, which is tagged. Read the leases off the UDM; those addresses are
+what Step 2 applies the first config to.
 
-- drops `siderolabs/qemu-guest-agent`, which has nothing to talk to on bare metal
-- adds `siderolabs/intel-ucode`, since no hypervisor is supplying microcode now
-- adds `siderolabs/thunderbolt`, unused so far and inert until
-  `machine.kernel.modules` requests `thunderbolt`/`thunderbolt_net`. It is
-  present only so enabling the MS-01 Thunderbolt mesh later does not require a
-  new image and a reinstall. Note its udev rule auto-authorises any Thunderbolt
-  device attached to the machine once those modules are loaded.
+The schematic `0f6fb8bd…` carries `net.ifnames=1` — without it the predictable
+interface names that `talos/patches/k8s-{1,2,3}.yaml` match their VLAN parents
+against do not exist, and the node ends up with no address on any interface.
+Beyond that it carries:
+
+- `siderolabs/intel-ucode` — no hypervisor supplies microcode here
+- `siderolabs/i915` — the Alder Lake-P Iris Xe. Nothing requests `/dev/dri`
+  today; present so wanting hardware transcoding later is a config change
+  rather than another rolling reinstall
+- `siderolabs/thunderbolt` — inert until `machine.kernel.modules` requests
+  `thunderbolt`/`thunderbolt_net`, present for the same reason. Note its udev
+  rule auto-authorises any Thunderbolt device attached once those modules load
+- no `qemu-guest-agent`, which has nothing to talk to on bare metal
+
+Verify the disks before going further. Talos enumerates NVMe in an order that
+is not stable across boots, and the per-node configs select by serial for
+exactly that reason — the failure mode is the installer taking the Ceph OSD
+drive. `talosctl -n <maintenance-ip> --insecure get disks` should show three
+NVMe devices whose serials match the `diskSelector` and `VolumeConfig` entries
+in `talos/patches/k8s-N.yaml`.
 
 ## Step 2 — talos: form the cluster + get kubeconfig
 
+**Do not use `kubernetes/bootstrap.sh talos`.** That phase cannot generate a
+config: it passes `talos/patches/cilium-cni.yaml` whole, and that file's
+`$patch: delete` document fails against a base with no `inlineManifests`
+(#581). Its other phases — `flux`, `wait-apps` — are still used, in Steps 3, 5
+and 6; only config generation is broken.
+
+The procedure below is what actually works, and is the same one
+`RUNBOOK-baremetal-conversion.md` uses.
+
+### Generate the configs
+
+This is a genuinely new cluster — nothing survives to copy secrets from, so
+generate them fresh. (In a *partial* rebuild, where one node still runs, pull
+secrets off it instead with `talosctl get mc v1alpha1` + `gen secrets
+--from-controlplane-config`, or the new node forms its own cluster rather than
+joining.)
+
 ```sh
-kubernetes/bootstrap.sh talos
+talosctl gen secrets -o secrets.yaml
+
+for N in 1 2 3; do
+  talosctl gen config homelab https://k8s.renner.uno:6443 \
+    --with-secrets secrets.yaml --output-types controlplane \
+    --config-patch @talos/patches/cluster.yaml \
+    --config-patch @<cilium additive half> \
+    --config-patch @talos/patches/registry-mirror.yaml \
+    --config-patch @talos/patches/k8s-$N.yaml -o install-k8s-$N.yaml
+done
 ```
 
-Generates + applies Talos configs to `k8s-{1,2,3}`, bootstraps etcd/Kubernetes,
-writes `~/.talos/config` + `~/.kube/config`, and stages both into
-`kubernetes/access-staging/` for later phases. Ends when all 3 nodes are `Ready`.
+Two things the generator gets wrong for this repo, both of which will bite
+silently:
+
+- **`cilium-cni.yaml` cannot be passed whole** — extract only its additive
+  second document. See issue #581.
+- **Strip the generated `HostnameConfig`** — it collides with
+  `machine.network.hostname` from the per-node patch.
+
+Validate each before applying:
+
+```sh
+talosctl validate --config install-k8s-$N.yaml --mode metal
+```
+
+### Apply in two stages
+
+Do **not** apply the full per-node config in maintenance mode. A document that
+references an interface which does not exist yet hangs the install: the node
+sits at `STAGE: Installing` indefinitely with `KUBELET n/a` and `APISERVER n/a`,
+and nothing times out. Concretely, the `ens19` VLAN document must be removed
+from the first-stage config — its parent exists, but the install stalls anyway.
+
+```sh
+# Stage 1: minimal config, from the maintenance-mode address off the console
+talosctl apply-config --insecure -n <maintenance-ip> --file install-k8s-$N-stage1.yaml
+# Stage 2: once the node is up on management, apply the complete config
+talosctl -n k8s-$N.srv.renner.uno apply-config --mode=try --timeout=5m --file install-k8s-$N.yaml
+```
+
+`--mode=try` rolls back on its own if the node becomes unreachable, which is the
+only safety net there is for a network change that can strand a machine with no
+IPMI. Use it for every network-affecting apply, then make it permanent once
+proven.
+
+### Bootstrap etcd, then collect access
+
+Bootstrap **exactly one** node:
+
+```sh
+talosctl -n k8s-1.srv.renner.uno bootstrap
+talosctl -n k8s-1.srv.renner.uno kubeconfig .
+```
+
+Ends when all three nodes are `Ready`. `scripts/import-cluster-access.sh` is the
+supported way to get the kubeconfig into place afterwards.
 
 ## Step 3 — flux: bootstrap GitOps **from the GitHub mirror** (break-glass)
 
@@ -231,9 +330,28 @@ it: repo → **Settings → Repository → Mirror Settings** in Gitea, or
   in-cluster commits made **after** Flux/Gitea broke are not on the mirror
   (Gitea couldn't push them if Gitea itself was down). This is the intended
   recovery point, but be aware of it when reconciling drift.
-- `bootstrap.sh` has no `openbao` phase — Step 4 is manual because the unseal
-  key must not live in CI. See issue #187 for the open question of whether to
-  wire a semi-automated OpenBao restore.
+- **Booting is physical; the rest is not.** MS-01 has no IPMI and nothing here
+  does PXE, so someone has to put a USB stick in three machines. From there it
+  is remote — a maintenance-mode node DHCPs untagged and is reachable at that
+  address, which is how all three bare-metal conversions were driven.
+  #576 claims a freshly booted node "comes up unreachable and must be installed
+  from a console". That is not what happens and has never been observed here.
+- **`bootstrap.sh talos` is dead** — it cannot generate a config (#581), and
+  Step 2 no longer uses it. Its `flux` and `wait-apps` phases are still used in
+  Steps 3, 5 and 6 and work; do not read this as the whole script being gone.
+  It has also never had an `openbao` phase — Step 4 is manual because the
+  unseal key must not live in CI; see issue #187 on whether to wire a
+  semi-automated OpenBao restore.
+- **OpenBao seals on every restart and each replica must be unsealed
+  individually.** Three raft replicas mean the service survives losing one, but
+  a sealed server is neither a voter nor a standby — unsealing only one leaves
+  the cluster short of quorum. Step 4 covers this; it is repeated here because
+  it is the step most likely to be half-done under pressure.
+- Ceph's cluster network is a Multus attachment on VLAN 49 with whereabouts
+  IPAM, not host networking. Nothing in the rebuild needs special handling for
+  it — the nodes hold no address on that segment — but a rebuilt cluster will
+  not have the whereabouts allocations from before, which is harmless since
+  they are assigned fresh.
 - warn-and-continue waits in the `flux` phase can mask a genuinely broken
   Ceph/infra bring-up; always read the phase output rather than trusting the
   exit code.

kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/prometheusrule-velero.yaml

@@ -40,17 +40,31 @@ spec:
             description: "A Velero backup run for {{ $labels.schedule }} completed with Failed or PartiallyFailed status in the last hour. Inspect with `kubectl -n velero get backup.velero.io -l velero.io/schedule-name={{ $labels.schedule }}` and the velero pod logs."
 
         - alert: VeleroBackupStale
-          # Daily schedule with no successful backup in over 30h: covers
-          # the case where multiple consecutive runs failed (Garage flapping
-          # over the backup window) without the per-event alerts being
-          # acted on.
+          # Daily schedule with no successful backup in over 60h: covers the
+          # case where consecutive runs failed without the per-event alerts
+          # being acted on.
+          #
+          # 60h, not 30h. At 30h a single missed cycle pages, and a single
+          # missed cycle is the normal cost of touching the nodes: Velero moves
+          # data through pods, so draining a node kills whatever upload is in
+          # flight and the schedule is simply lost for that day — it is not
+          # retried. Rolling node work between 03:15 and 08:45 UTC therefore
+          # produced a guaranteed critical alert for every schedule it
+          # overlapped, which is noise about planned work rather than a signal
+          # about backups.
+          #
+          # 60h still catches what this is for. Two consecutive failures is no
+          # longer explicable by one maintenance window, and the per-event
+          # VeleroBackupFailed alert fires on the first failure regardless — so
+          # nothing is hidden, only the escalation to critical is deferred
+          # until a second cycle confirms it.
           expr: |
-            time() - velero_backup_last_successful_timestamp{schedule!=""} > 30 * 3600
+            time() - velero_backup_last_successful_timestamp{schedule!=""} > 60 * 3600
             and
             velero_backup_last_successful_timestamp{schedule!=""} > 0
           for: 10m
           labels:
             severity: critical
           annotations:
-            summary: "Velero {{ $labels.schedule }} has no successful backup in 30h+"
-            description: "Last successful backup for {{ $labels.schedule }} was over 30 hours ago. With a daily schedule that means at least one full cycle missed. RPO is degrading."
+            summary: "Velero {{ $labels.schedule }} has no successful backup in 60h+"
+            description: "Last successful backup for {{ $labels.schedule }} was over 60 hours ago. With a daily schedule that is at least two consecutive cycles missed, which one maintenance window does not explain. RPO is degrading."

kubernetes/talos/patches/cluster.yaml

@@ -42,8 +42,17 @@ machine:
   # Only read at install and upgrade time. Changing it here does nothing to a
   # running node until that node is upgraded. Bump the tag with the Talos
   # version — it must match the running version, or the upgrade is a downgrade.
+  #
+  # Upgrades follow the documented path: migration is only tested between
+  # adjacent minor releases, so go to the latest patch of each intermediate
+  # minor rather than skipping. 1.12.11 -> 1.13.9 satisfies that — one minor
+  # step from the last 1.12 patch, no intermediate needed.
+  #
+  # Kubernetes is a separate decision and is not forced by this. Talos 1.13
+  # supports Kubernetes 1.36, 1.35, 1.34, 1.33, 1.32 and 1.31, so the cluster
+  # stays on 1.35.2 until `talosctl upgrade-k8s` moves it deliberately.
   install:
-    image: factory.talos.dev/metal-installer/0f6fb8bd8bb53013e9743b7c7b099d96fb9c32fd2464ced32693c2dc0ea5feb9:v1.12.11
+    image: factory.talos.dev/metal-installer/0f6fb8bd8bb53013e9743b7c7b099d96fb9c32fd2464ced32693c2dc0ea5feb9:v1.13.9
   features:
     rbac: true
     stableHostname: true