fix(ci): dispatch security-scan by cron name and deploy target

Two separate bugs in one `when` block, only one of which is #582.

The cron gate has never matched. It asked for `PIPELINE == "security-scan"` on
`event: cron`, and crons cannot carry variables — `repo cron add` takes name,
branch, schedule and enabled, and nothing else. So the variable is undefined on
every cron run and the workflow is filtered out. The `daily-security-scan` cron
does fire, and pipeline 6877 shows what actually ran under it: the `e2e`
workflow alone, which opts into that cron by name. The Trivy scan and the
security-fix agent have not been running on schedule. This predates 3.18.0 and
would have survived any fix to it.

The manual gate is the #582 case. Woodpecker 3.18 stopped merging manual-run
variables into the environment the workflow-root filter evaluates against
(builder.go:102-111 builds it from metadata plus global envs; AdditionalEnvs is
passed to the compiler at line 223 but never into this map), so
`PIPELINE == "security-scan"` cannot be true there either.

Both now use selectors the root filter can actually see:

  cron       -> matched by the cron's NAME, the way alert-monitor and e2e
                already do it. First-class filter, no variable involved.
  deployment -> CI_PIPELINE_DEPLOY_TARGET, which comes from pipeline metadata
                (metadata/environment.go:74) and therefore reaches the root
                filter on 3.18.

Dispatch becomes `woodpecker-cli pipeline deploy k.renner/homelab <n>
security-scan` — a named deployment target rather than a magic variable that
exists only to pick which of fourteen files is allowed to run.

Pilot for the remaining thirteen. Nothing else is converted until this one is
confirmed working end to end.

.woodpecker/security-scan.yml

@@ -1,8 +1,20 @@
+# Trivy scan of the IaC tree and every image referenced from ansible/, with an
+# agent pass that opens a PR for CRITICAL/HIGH findings.
+#
+# Triggers:
+#   - cron       : the named `daily-security-scan` cron, matched by NAME.
+#                  Crons cannot carry variables — `woodpecker-cli repo cron add`
+#                  has no --var — so a variable gate can never match a cron.
+#   - deployment : woodpecker-cli pipeline deploy k.renner/homelab <n> security-scan
+#                  The target rides in pipeline metadata as
+#                  CI_PIPELINE_DEPLOY_TARGET, which the workflow-root filter
+#                  does see, unlike manual-run variables on Woodpecker 3.18
+#                  (#582).
 when:
   - event: cron
-    evaluate: 'PIPELINE == "security-scan"'
-  - event: manual
-    evaluate: 'PIPELINE == "security-scan"'
+    cron: daily-security-scan
+  - event: deployment
+    evaluate: 'CI_PIPELINE_DEPLOY_TARGET == "security-scan"'
 
 steps:
   - name: iac-scan

kubernetes/apps/authentik/outpost-servicemonitors.yaml

@@ -1,50 +1,10 @@
 ---
-# The goauthentik.io operator (inside authentik-worker) auto-creates a
-# ServiceMonitor per outpost, but it does not stamp the
-# `release: kube-prometheus-stack` label that this cluster's Prometheus
-# requires on serviceMonitorSelector. Those operator-owned SMs are
-# silently ignored. Declare standalone SMs here with the correct label
-# so the outposts actually get scraped.
-apiVersion: monitoring.coreos.com/v1
-kind: ServiceMonitor
-metadata:
-  name: authentik-outpost-ldap
-  namespace: authentik
-  labels:
-    release: kube-prometheus-stack
-spec:
-  namespaceSelector:
-    matchNames:
-      - authentik
-  selector:
-    matchLabels:
-      goauthentik.io/outpost-name: ldap-outpost
-      goauthentik.io/outpost-type: ldap
-  endpoints:
-    - port: http-metrics
-      path: /metrics
-      interval: 30s
----
-apiVersion: monitoring.coreos.com/v1
-kind: ServiceMonitor
-metadata:
-  name: authentik-outpost-paperless-gate
-  namespace: authentik
-  labels:
-    release: kube-prometheus-stack
-spec:
-  namespaceSelector:
-    matchNames:
-      - authentik
-  selector:
-    matchLabels:
-      goauthentik.io/outpost-name: paperless-gate
-      goauthentik.io/outpost-type: proxy
-  endpoints:
-    - port: http-metrics
-      path: /metrics
-      interval: 30s
----
+# Only radius needs a hand-written ServiceMonitor. The goauthentik.io operator
+# creates one per outpost and Prometheus discovers those directly, because
+# serviceMonitorSelector here is empty (see monitoring/helmrelease-prometheus.yaml).
+# Standalone copies for ldap and paperless-gate used to live here as well; they
+# duplicated the operator's and were removed.
+#
 # Radius requires extra plumbing. The radius binary listens on :9300 just
 # like ldap/proxy (hardcoded in authentik/lib/default.yml), but authentik's
 # Python operator (`providers/radius/controllers/kubernetes.py`) omits the
@@ -53,6 +13,11 @@ spec:
 # it, radius does not. Result: the operator-managed `ak-outpost-local-radius`
 # Service exposes only UDP 1812. Add a sibling Service here that selects the
 # same pod labels and exposes 9300/TCP, then a ServiceMonitor for it.
+#
+# The operator's own `ak-outpost-local-radius` ServiceMonitor cannot cover
+# this: it selects on `app.kubernetes.io/managed-by: goauthentik.io` together
+# with `goauthentik.io/service-type: metrics`, and no Service carries both —
+# the operator's has the first, the one below has the second.
 apiVersion: v1
 kind: Service
 metadata:
@@ -86,6 +51,8 @@ spec:
     matchNames:
       - authentik
   selector:
+    # Pinned to the Service above. Without managed-by this would also match the
+    # operator's Service and scrape the same endpoint twice.
     matchLabels:
       app.kubernetes.io/managed-by: homelab
       goauthentik.io/outpost-name: local-radius

kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/alloy-servicemonitor.yaml

@@ -5,9 +5,8 @@ metadata:
   namespace: monitoring
   labels:
     app.kubernetes.io/name: alloy
-    # kube-prometheus-stack's Prometheus resource selects ServiceMonitors
-    # by this label; without it the resource exists but is never
-    # discovered.
+    # Not required for discovery — serviceMonitorSelector is empty — but kept
+    # for consistency with the other monitors.
     release: kube-prometheus-stack
 spec:
   selector:

kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/cnpg-podmonitors.yaml

@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
 # Scrape the CNPG Postgres instances (port 9187, built-in exporter).
-# CNPG's own enablePodMonitor would generate PodMonitors without the
-# `release: kube-prometheus-stack` label, which this Prometheus requires
-# (podMonitorSelector), so we define them here instead.
+# Defined here rather than via CNPG's own enablePodMonitor so the scrape
+# config lives with the other monitors. The `release` label below is not
+# required for discovery — podMonitorSelector is empty — but kept for
+# consistency.
 apiVersion: monitoring.coreos.com/v1
 kind: PodMonitor
 metadata:

kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/home-assistant-servicemonitor.yaml

@@ -5,9 +5,8 @@ metadata:
   namespace: home-assistant
   labels:
     app.kubernetes.io/name: home-assistant
-    # kube-prometheus-stack's Prometheus resource selects ServiceMonitors
-    # by this label; without it the resource exists but is never
-    # discovered. Same trap the garage PrometheusRule documents.
+    # Not required for discovery — serviceMonitorSelector is empty — but kept
+    # for consistency with the other monitors.
     release: kube-prometheus-stack
 spec:
   selector:

kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/loki-servicemonitor.yaml

@@ -5,9 +5,8 @@ metadata:
   namespace: monitoring
   labels:
     app.kubernetes.io/name: loki
-    # kube-prometheus-stack's Prometheus resource selects ServiceMonitors
-    # by this label; without it the resource exists but is never
-    # discovered.
+    # Not required for discovery — serviceMonitorSelector is empty — but kept
+    # for consistency with the other monitors.
     release: kube-prometheus-stack
 spec:
   # Matches the `loki` (single-binary) and `loki-canary` services, but

kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/probes-blackbox.yaml

@@ -1,5 +1,9 @@
 # HTTP probes — fan out to blackbox-exporter. Probe targets mirror the
 # legacy Ansible role's blackbox_http_targets list.
+#
+# The `release` label on every Probe here IS load-bearing: probeSelector still
+# matches on it, unlike serviceMonitorSelector and podMonitorSelector, which
+# are empty. Removing it silently stops the probe from being discovered.
 apiVersion: monitoring.coreos.com/v1
 kind: Probe
 metadata:

kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/prometheusrule-cnpg-backup.yaml

@@ -11,25 +11,22 @@ spec:
   groups:
     - name: cnpg-backup.rules
       rules:
-        # WHY THIS FILE EXISTS
-        # Seven Postgres clusters back up to Hetzner and NOTHING alerted if that
-        # stopped. The only related rule was HetznerBackupEndpointDown, which
-        # probes the S3 endpoint — it proves the bucket is reachable, not that
-        # anything was written to it. Same failure shape as the WordPress backup
-        # that failed nightly for three days against a bucket that was declared
-        # in tofu but never applied: the status surface looked fine because
-        # nothing checked the thing that mattered.
+        # The Postgres clusters back up to Hetzner. HetznerBackupEndpointDown
+        # probes that S3 endpoint, which proves the bucket is reachable and
+        # nothing more — these two rules check that something is actually being
+        # written to it.
 
         - alert: CNPGWalArchiveBacklog
           # `ready` counts WAL segments sitting in pg_wal/archive_status waiting
-          # to be archived. Steady state is 0 across every cluster (verified
-          # 2026-08-19). A sustained backlog means the archiver is failing:
-          # point-in-time recovery is silently broken from that moment, and
-          # pg_wal keeps growing until it fills the PVC and takes Postgres down.
+          # to be archived. Steady state is 0. A sustained backlog means the
+          # archiver is failing: point-in-time recovery is silently broken from
+          # that moment, and pg_wal keeps growing until it fills the PVC and
+          # takes Postgres down.
           #
-          # This is the load-bearing alert of the two. It depends only on the
-          # instance-level collector, so unlike the backup-age metrics below it
-          # is unaffected by the missing Backup CRs (#522).
+          # This is the load-bearing alert of the two. It reads the
+          # instance-level collector directly, so unlike the backup-age metric
+          # discussed below it does not depend on Cluster status being
+          # populated.
           #
           # Threshold: >5 segments sustained for 30m. Brief non-zero values are
           # normal under write bursts — a segment is 16 MiB, so 5 is roughly
@@ -63,16 +60,17 @@ spec:
         #
         # The natural expression is
         #   (time() - cnpg_collector_last_available_backup_timestamp) > 48*3600
-        # and it CANNOT be used today: that metric reads exactly 0 on every
-        # instance in the cluster (verified 2026-08-19 across gf-pg, ak-pg-1/2,
-        # pprl-pg-2/3, im-pg, wp-pg, ha-pg). CNPG has no record of any
-        # successful backup anywhere, because the Backup CRs it derives that
-        # from are being deleted within a minute of completing — see #522.
+        # and it cannot be used, because that metric reads exactly 0 on every
+        # instance. The collector derives it from `Cluster.status
+        # .lastSuccessfulBackup`, and that field is absent on every Cluster
+        # here: all of them back up with `method: plugin` (barman-cloud), and
+        # the plugin path does not write it back.
         #
-        # Backups themselves DO work; that was verified independently by
-        # listing the bucket with barman-cloud-backup-list and restoring a WAL
-        # segment back out of S3. The gap is in the record, not the data.
+        # The backups themselves run and are retained — completed Backup CRs
+        # going back weeks exist for every scheduled cluster. The gap is in the
+        # status field the metric reads, not in the data.
         #
-        # Adding the rule now would fire permanently for all seven clusters and
-        # be silenced within a day, which is worse than not having it. Add it as
-        # part of resolving #522, once the metric reflects reality.
+        # Adding the rule against that metric would fire permanently for every
+        # cluster, which is worse than not having it. Either the plugin starts
+        # populating the field, or the alert has to be built on the Backup CRs
+        # directly, which Prometheus does not see today.

kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/prometheusrule-disk-wear.yaml

@@ -12,21 +12,54 @@ spec:
     - name: disk-wear.rules
       rules:
         # Wear percentages are self-reported: 100 means the rated endurance is
-        # spent, not that the drive stops. Planning thresholds, not predictions.
-        - alert: NvmeDriveWearHigh
-          # Long `for` because wear is monotonic and cannot flap.
-          expr: smartctl_device_percentage_used >= 80
-          for: 1h
+        # spent, not that the drive stops.
+        #
+        # Wear alone is not a signal. It only ever rises, so a plain threshold
+        # starts firing the day a drive crosses it and never stops — a status
+        # dressed as an alert (#673, #675, #682, #686 were all one drive set
+        # crossing 80%). What matters is wear that is high AND still climbing,
+        # so the alert below is a projection: at the write rate of the last
+        # week, when does this drive reach 95%?
+        #
+        # The rate is self-calibrating. Each drive reports both its lifetime
+        # bytes written and its own wear percentage, so bytes-per-percent comes
+        # from the drive itself and no rated-endurance table has to be kept in
+        # sync with the hardware. percentage_used is a whole-number percent and
+        # advances only every few weeks here, which is far too coarse to
+        # differentiate; bytes_written moves on every scrape.
+        - alert: NvmeDriveWearProjectedExhaustion
+          # The >= 80 gate is numerical, not editorial: bytes-per-percent is
+          # derived by dividing by an integer percentage, so on a lightly worn
+          # drive a half-percent rounding error swings the projection by tens
+          # of percent. Above 80 the same rounding is under one percent.
+          # Idle drives divide by a zero rate and yield +Inf, which is not < the
+          # threshold, so they stay silent on their own.
+          expr: >-
+            (
+              (95 - smartctl_device_percentage_used)
+              /
+              (
+                rate(smartctl_device_bytes_written[7d]) * 86400
+                  * smartctl_device_percentage_used
+                  / smartctl_device_bytes_written
+              )
+            ) < 180
+            and smartctl_device_percentage_used >= 80
+          # Long, because a projection off a 7d rate should not react to a day.
+          for: 6h
           labels:
             severity: warning
           annotations:
-            summary: "NVMe {{ $labels.device }} on {{ $labels.instance }} is at {{ $value }}% rated wear"
+            summary: "NVMe {{ $labels.device }} on {{ $labels.instance }} projects to 95% wear in {{ $value | printf \"%.0f\" }} days"
             description: >-
-              {{ $value }}% of rated write endurance used. Nothing is failing
-              yet. Urgency depends on what the drive carries — the Disk Health
-              dashboard shows the role. Losing an OSD costs a rebalance;
-              EPHEMERAL is /var and rebuilds, apart from the node's etcd member
-              data, which has to be removed and re-added.
+              The drive is past 80% of its rated endurance and the write rate
+              of the last week would spend the rest within six months. This is
+              a lead-time warning, not a fault: decide whether to replace the
+              drive or move what is writing to it. The Disk Health dashboard
+              shows which drives carry which role.
+        # Kept as a flat threshold on purpose: past rated endurance the drive
+        # runs outside what the manufacturer stands behind regardless of how
+        # fast it got there, and the alert clears by replacing it.
         - alert: NvmeDriveWearCritical
           expr: smartctl_device_percentage_used >= 95
           for: 1h

kubernetes/apps/monitoring/helmrelease-blackbox-exporter.yaml

@@ -24,8 +24,10 @@ spec:
       enabled: true
       defaults:
         labels:
-          # Required for kube-prometheus-stack's Prometheus to pick up
-          # this ServiceMonitor (its selector matches release).
+          # Not required for discovery — serviceMonitorSelector is empty — but
+          # kept for consistency with the other monitors. The Probes in
+          # monitoring-rules/probes-blackbox.yaml do need it; probeSelector
+          # still matches on release.
           release: kube-prometheus-stack
         interval: 30s
     # Helm DOES deep-merge this map with the chart's default (that is why

kubernetes/apps/monitoring/helmrelease-prometheus.yaml

@@ -56,26 +56,21 @@ spec:
         #
         # By default kube-prometheus-stack sets these selectors to
         # `matchLabels: {release: kube-prometheus-stack}`. ServiceMonitors
-        # created at RUNTIME by third-party operators carry that operator's own
-        # labels instead and can never be made to match — no static manifest or
-        # Kustomize patch can relabel an object the operator creates itself.
+        # created at RUNTIME by third-party operators — Rook, goauthentik.io —
+        # carry that operator's own labels instead and can never be made to
+        # match: no static manifest or Kustomize patch can relabel an object
+        # the operator creates itself. Left strict, those targets are dropped
+        # silently, with no failed resource and no gap visible anywhere except
+        # in the missing series.
         #
-        # This was silently dropping 12 of 30 ServiceMonitors (2026-07-27):
-        #   rook-ceph/rook-ceph-mgr, rook-ceph/rook-ceph-exporter  (team: rook)
-        #   authentik/ak-outpost-*  x10                            (goauthentik.io/...)
-        # Consequence: ZERO `ceph_*` series existed in Prometheus for all 79
-        # days of the cluster's life — the entire storage layer had no
-        # telemetry, no history, and any Ceph alerting rule would have had
-        # nothing to fire on. The Rook side is the reason this was found; the
-        # authentik outpost targets come along with it.
+        # Because these two are empty, the `release` label on this repo's own
+        # ServiceMonitors and PodMonitors is decorative. It is still set for
+        # consistency, and the comments there say so.
         #
-        # This is the ServiceMonitor twin of the trap already documented for
-        # rules in monitoring-rules/prometheusrule-velero.yaml ("without this
-        # label the rule is created but never loaded").
-        #
-        # ruleSelector is deliberately NOT loosened: this repo's PrometheusRules
-        # all carry `release: kube-prometheus-stack` on purpose, and keeping
-        # that selector strict stops a stray third-party rule from firing here.
+        # ruleSelector, probeSelector and scrapeConfigSelector are deliberately
+        # NOT loosened: nothing outside this repo creates those, so keeping the
+        # selectors strict stops a stray third-party rule from firing here. For
+        # PrometheusRules and Probes the label IS required.
         serviceMonitorSelectorNilUsesHelmValues: false
         podMonitorSelectorNilUsesHelmValues: false
         # Rewrites the in-cluster URL embedded in alert generatorURLs and