diff --git a/kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/prometheusrule-velero.yaml b/kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/prometheusrule-velero.yaml
index 863250a5..6d4383cd 100644
--- a/kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/prometheusrule-velero.yaml
+++ b/kubernetes/apps/monitoring-rules/prometheusrule-velero.yaml
@@ -40,17 +40,31 @@ spec:
             description: "A Velero backup run for {{ $labels.schedule }} completed with Failed or PartiallyFailed status in the last hour. Inspect with `kubectl -n velero get backup.velero.io -l velero.io/schedule-name={{ $labels.schedule }}` and the velero pod logs."
 
         - alert: VeleroBackupStale
-          # Daily schedule with no successful backup in over 30h: covers
-          # the case where multiple consecutive runs failed (Garage flapping
-          # over the backup window) without the per-event alerts being
-          # acted on.
+          # Daily schedule with no successful backup in over 60h: covers the
+          # case where consecutive runs failed without the per-event alerts
+          # being acted on.
+          #
+          # 60h, not 30h. At 30h a single missed cycle pages, and a single
+          # missed cycle is the normal cost of touching the nodes: Velero moves
+          # data through pods, so draining a node kills whatever upload is in
+          # flight and the schedule is simply lost for that day — it is not
+          # retried. Rolling node work between 03:15 and 08:45 UTC therefore
+          # produced a guaranteed critical alert for every schedule it
+          # overlapped, which is noise about planned work rather than a signal
+          # about backups.
+          #
+          # 60h still catches what this is for. Two consecutive failures is no
+          # longer explicable by one maintenance window, and the per-event
+          # VeleroBackupFailed alert fires on the first failure regardless — so
+          # nothing is hidden, only the escalation to critical is deferred
+          # until a second cycle confirms it.
           expr: |
-            time() - velero_backup_last_successful_timestamp{schedule!=""} > 30 * 3600
+            time() - velero_backup_last_successful_timestamp{schedule!=""} > 60 * 3600
             and
             velero_backup_last_successful_timestamp{schedule!=""} > 0
           for: 10m
           labels:
             severity: critical
           annotations:
-            summary: "Velero {{ $labels.schedule }} has no successful backup in 30h+"
-            description: "Last successful backup for {{ $labels.schedule }} was over 30 hours ago. With a daily schedule that means at least one full cycle missed. RPO is degrading."
+            summary: "Velero {{ $labels.schedule }} has no successful backup in 60h+"
+            description: "Last successful backup for {{ $labels.schedule }} was over 60 hours ago. With a daily schedule that is at least two consecutive cycles missed, which one maintenance window does not explain. RPO is degrading."